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Polycarbonate Branch reminds that China's polycarbonate production capacity may be "spurt" growth in the next few years

Time: 2018-10-30

Polycarbonate Branch reminds that China's polycarbonate production capacity may be "spurt" growth in the next few years


According to incomplete statistics, the scale of domestic polycarbonate construction will exceed 3 million tons per year in the next few years, and the new installations planned to be put into operation in 2018-2019 will be close to 1 million tons per year. "This round of polycarbonate boom in China has shocked the global plastics industry. Unwise investment behavior will disrupt the market and cause vicious competition." Zheng Yu, chairman of the China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association, pointed out recently.

Zheng Yu analyzed that the intensive release of polycarbonate capacity can greatly increase the self-sufficiency rate and meet the domestic market demand, but on the other hand, it will also generate new problems, the growth rate of capacity growth and demand growth rate, and a large number of homogeneity. The construction of the project may lead to overcapacity in the industry as a whole.

According to Duan Qingsheng, secretary general of the Polycarbonate Branch of the China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association, China is the country with the fastest growth in demand for polycarbonate in recent years, and its import dependence has been high. Before 2012, only China's Covestro and Teijin two 10,000-ton polycarbonate producers accounted for almost all of the domestic production capacity. In the following years, domestic enterprises tried hard to break the dependence on imports. The new installations of Sinopec Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Gas, Zhetie Dafeng, Luxi Chemical, Wanhua Chemical and other enterprises were gradually put into production.

In May this year, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation issued a warning report on the production capacity of key petrochemical products. According to the report, China's polycarbonate has maintained a growth rate of more than 20% per year for four consecutive years, and its capacity utilization rate has reached 72.7%. However, in the next three years, domestic polycarbonate projects will be invested and constructed. It is estimated that this year's new capacity will reach 400,000 tons/year, and the growth of downstream electronic appliances and building boards will be slow. Traditional optical discs will be affected by new modes of transmission. The demand for esters continues to shrink.

So how much polycarbonate does the market need? The Blue Book states that domestic polycarbonate consumption in 2017 is close to 1.8 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of global consumption. It is expected that the growth rate of domestic polycarbonate demand will remain at 3% to 5% in the next few years. By 2022, domestic demand for polycarbonate will reach 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons. Therefore, in the next few years, China's net imports of polycarbonate will decline rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate will rise rapidly. It is expected to reach a balance between supply and demand by 2021~2022 and eventually become a net exporter.

The polycarbonate branch reminded that in the next few years, China's polycarbonate production capacity may be “spurt” growth, and the risk of overcapacity caused by overheated investment will appear.